Is this a Bear Market?

Financial assets are in a bear market. Buying the dip may be painful. Valuations need to decline as rates i.e. the risk free , increases. Look at the chart below. 

The Fed funds, the rate that US banks borrow from the Fed and is a global reference for the cost of capital, is likely to go above 3% if inflation begins to moderate (and higher if inflation does not!). That means stock valuations, in aggregate on average should fall. Every stock or company is different and some are cheap and others can thrive in this environment. 

But as a whole stocks are most likely headed lower. $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 should decline at least another 10% and more if earnings growth is slower or declines. 

The buy trigger is when and if inflation breaks. At that point the bond market can price in a real return and the Fed can begin to stop the tightening cycle. 

Key to inflation are commodities and wage growth, watch those items. 

Until then I’m short the $TMF (Bonds), long $USDOLLAR , defense stocks , commodities, energy and some value stocks.

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